The brand new version of the Worldwide Expertise Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV), printed this week, discovered that 295 GW of PV modules had been shipped in 2022, and that the costs of silicon PV modules fell by 7% within the yr . The report discovered that worth premiums for n-type modules are actually marginal, and the know-how has grown to characterize 15% of the market, and is anticipated to proceed rising within the coming decade.
This week sees the publication of the annual ITRPV report, compiled by the German engineering affiliation VDMA. Now he is 14th version, the report captures in-depth know-how tendencies throughout the provision chain for silicon PV merchandise. VDMA calculates PV module shipments in 2022 at 295 GW, with 258 GW put in and the remaining nonetheless in transit or warehouse.
ITRPV discovered that, by the top of 2022, the weighted common spot worth for silicon PV modules fell by 7% in comparison with final yr, reaching $0.228/W. The report additionally notes the rising market share for n-type applied sciences, and that the premium worth for it’s now marginal – solely two tenths of a cent above the typical of $0.230/W.
By way of manufacturing capability, the VDMA discovered that nearly 600 GW had been on-line on the finish of final yr, with silicon crystal applied sciences representing 95% of the market. The brand new factories coming on-line at the moment normally have a minimum of 2 GW of capability, and that is anticipated to extend to five GW in the long run.
Expertise tendencies
Massive wafer codecs (182mm and 210mm) at the moment characterize greater than 60% of the market, with codecs 166mm and smaller anticipated to vanish from the market fully by 2027. VDMA additionally expects codecs which is larger than 210mm can be seen after 2025, representing solely a small market. share within the subsequent decade. The division between these two main codecs is just not but clear, however all new manufacturing traces are able to processing each.
Monocrystalline silicon now accounts for 97% of manufacturing, and the report expects older multicrystalline applied sciences to vanish totally within the close to future. Gallium doping has now develop into mainstream once more, with the boron doping that changed it additionally anticipated to vanish by the top of this yr.
PERC (passivated emitter rear contact) stays the main cell know-how in the meanwhile, accounting for round 70% of the market, however the VDMA says its substitute with TOPCon (tunnel oxide passivated contact) is now nicely underway. . TOPCon is anticipated to succeed in a market share of 60%, heterojunction 19% and again contact applied sciences 5% by 2033, in line with the report.
silver
VDMA analysis discovered that efforts to scale back silver consumption proceed sooner than predicted by the 2022 ITRPV, and have now reached a mean of 10mg/W. This could fall to six.5mg within the subsequent decade , regardless of the expansion of n-type applied sciences that require extra silver than PERC. “The TOPCon of mass manufacturing by Tier 1 producers in China is reported to be, on the finish of 2022, at a decrease stage of consumption 2 to five years forward of our forecast,” says the VDMA.
ITRPV stays conservative about changing silver, nevertheless. It expects copper plating to be launched to mass manufacturing within the subsequent decade, however says it is going to characterize solely 7.5% of the market in 2033. “Technical points associated to reliability and adhesion should be resolved earlier than various metallization strategies may be launched,” VDMA states. “Applicable tools and processes should even be prepared for mass manufacturing. Silver is anticipated to stay essentially the most broadly used entrance metallization materials for crystalline silicon cells within the coming years.
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