Photo voltaic module costs might be pressured by trade capability will increase this 12 months, with capacities doubling within the ingot/wafer phases and presumably quadrupling for polysilicon by 2027, in keeping with the most recent report. on PV pricing from Clear Vitality Associates (CEA).
The most recent PV worth forecast from CEA predicts that module costs in China will fall by about 15% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, whereas polysilicon costs proceed to sliding.
The engineering consultancy says that from 2023 to 2024, TOPCon costs will stay greater than PERC.
“As many new cell strains are ramping up they must be calibrated, limiting the expansion of TOPCon availability,” CEA mentioned.
Nevertheless, it added that it expects the value distinction between the 2 applied sciences to lower from 2024, “as TOPCon turns into the default utility-scale module.” Nevertheless, the corporate famous that it expects some worth hole to stay between TOPCon and PERC, “as a result of the rising adoption of TOPCon will trigger PERC to be provided at an more and more discounted fee till it’s retired.”
The corresponding graph from the report reveals that within the first quarter of 2025, monofacial, backsheet TOPCon modules will price the identical as bifacial double-glass PERC modules with 210 mm cells. Between the primary quarter of 2024 and the primary quarter of 2025, module costs in China will drop by a mean of 6%, in keeping with the report.
International PV manufacturing capability throughout the availability chain will expertise sturdy development from 2022 to 2027, in keeping with CEA, with capacities doubling within the ingot/wafer phases and probably quadrupling for polysilicon. This capability will stay largely concentrated in China, says the CEA.
The surplus provide of apparatus, measured by the nominal manufacturing capability of the trade in comparison with new services, is anticipated to extend from 25% in 2022 to 100% in 2027. In different phrases, the trade as an entire -an in a position to produce twice the demand, in keeping with projections.
By 2023, world module manufacturing capability is ready to exceed 800 GW per 12 months, whereas world installations are more likely to stay above 300 GW. In 2027, module manufacturing capability might exceed 1,000 GW per 12 months, whereas installations ought to strategy 500 GW.
Probably the most rapid affect of the rise in market capability might be a tripling of polysilicon capability from 2022 to 2024, based mostly on new capability being constructed or already within the start-up and ramp-up phases.
CEA projections are the results of a specifically developed modeling system to offer unbiased market intelligence on modifications in world provide chains and correct forecasts for worth situations in provide based mostly on applied sciences, supplies, manufacturing areas, and goal markets, in addition to provide and demand forecasts.
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