Shifting sands of the Polish PV market – pv magazine International

March 27, 2023 Maria Maisch

Poland would be the third largest photo voltaic market in Europe in 2022, with 4.9 GW put in. What can we anticipate this 12 months?

It will likely be completely different. Final 12 months, near 80% of latest PV installations got here from the residential market section. This 12 months, there are two elements limiting its development. First is the transition from internet metering to internet billing that was introduced final spring, and the second is the federal government’s resolution to freeze electrical energy costs for shoppers who keep inside sure ranges of electrical energy consumption. In different phrases, the federal government has set three ranges of power consumption at 2000 kWh, 2600 kWh and 3000 kWh/12 months, the place the final stage is reserved for big households, farmers, and senior residents. Those that don’t exceed these limits will preserve the power costs from final 12 months, and a few can pay new costs which can be 20% to 22% increased. It’s anticipated that not many households will have the ability to keep inside these limits, however even then the details about the frozen costs has already cooled the demand.

In the meantime, we see rising demand within the industrial and industrial (C&I) section pushed by two elements: electrical energy costs haven’t been frozen for them, so they’re uncovered to market costs which can be comparatively excessive, and corporations are additionally below stress. to decarbonize below initiatives resembling RE100. In brief, I anticipate the market to keep up final 12 months’s volumes, however development might be pushed by the C&I sector slightly than residential. For instance, Poland’s main supplier of photovoltaic options for enterprise Quanta at present has over 100 MW of pure C&I PV tasks of their pipeline.

You talked about the transition from internet metering to internet billing, which initially had a powerful damaging affect available on the market – some corporations even reported chapter. Has the market tailored to this variation?

Earlier than the swap, folks had been panic shopping for. Should you take a look at our residential gross sales in Poland, 80% of them occurred within the interval January-March. In April, the market disappeared. In Could, the motion began slowly. However at this level, folks have realized how internet billing works, so it not prevents them from putting in photo voltaic as within the first place. Within the case of Menlo, Poland represents 30% of our revenues so we didn’t really feel the shock as a result of on the time we had robust demand from Germany, the Baltic states, and southern Europe.

Photo voltaic has been the highest winner within the newest renewables auctions, however general uptake has been disappointing, as massive, unsubsidized PV tasks have begun to achieve market share. What can we anticipate from the utility-scale PV market in Poland?

It is rather tough to say. In rejecting native laws, there are two elements to think about. The numerous drop in costs for photo voltaic modules pushed by the discount in polysilicon costs has created a powerful expectation of decreased worth traits, so traders are reluctant to purchase now and look ahead to to additional scale back the value. In the meantime, there’s a massive hole within the provide of enormous inverters. So, market leaders like Sungrow and Huawei have a backlog of orders from final 12 months that might be fulfilled quickly in September or October of this 12 months. These two elements prolonged the planning part for an additional six to 9 months and slowed utility-scale PV growth in Poland.

As a number one distributor in Poland, what does Menlo Electrical see by way of the know-how preferences of mission builders?

Prospects observe new applied sciences that guarantee higher effectivity and yield. By way of PV modules, for instance, about 95% of our JinkoSolar presents are their n-type TOPCon merchandise. The newest TOPCon merchandise stand out for increased effectivity (as much as 23%), lengthy life (30 years), and low degradation (solely 0,4%/12 months). What’s extra essential in markets resembling Poland, the UK and Scandinavia, that are extra shaded than the remainder of Europe, is the higher weak mild response that such modules can produce, including a further two hours of manufacturing in a day.

In the meantime, massive inverters with 350 kW energy appeal to a whole lot of consideration, however they don’t seem to be broadly out there so we can’t discuss their advantages. In the meantime, this 12 months FoxESS, Sungrow, and SolarEdge have efficiently launched hybrid inverters together with storage options that already characterize 60-70% of our inverter gross sales. We’re absolutely stocked with FoxESS and Sungrow hybrid options and might ship them throughout Europe inside 5 working days. Nevertheless, Polish households are nonetheless reluctant to put in batteries and are possible ready for extra authorities assist. However we see that C&I and utility-scale tasks are planning batteries and already putting in hybrid inverters. We additionally anticipate the demand for microinverters to accentuate in Poland and we’re prepared to provide it with TSUN merchandise.

Menlo Electrical launched the Vitality to Energy Your Future charity program final 12 months to supply free PV installations for establishments that care for kids in Ukraine. What occurred to this mission?

We signed the contract for 10 installations, with a complete energy of 300 kW. We’re about to begin the primary set up of a kids’s hospital in Chernigov, in northern Ukraine. We’ve got already obtained the parts for the opposite two installations due to the assist of our companions Deye and FoxESS. Up to now, we’ve delivered free installations in Poland, Romania, and shortly in Bulgaria. Our enterprise companions, resembling JinkoSolar and Sungrow, we’re all very curious about collaborating with such charity initiatives and are prepared to assist.