pv journal: How will the worldwide marketplace for PV installations develop in 2022?
Jenny Chase: We had been shocked by the robust development in China, particularly for residential and industrial – we initially anticipated 99 GW of recent development in China this yr and raised that to 126 GW (DC). Our present estimate for the development yr is 268 GW (DC). Europe has purchased loads of modules – over 72 GW – though we anticipate it to have solely put in about 42 GW, so there’s loads of stock.
What was the largest shock for you this yr?
How excessive polysilicon and module costs remained till the tip of the yr, reflecting robust shopping for exercise that offset the influence of elevated provide. We had been additionally shocked that the Inflation Discount Act (IRA) was handed in america. The incentives within the regulation are enormous.
Will the scarcity of elements have an effect on the event of world PV markets?
Transformers and inverters are nonetheless not simple to acquire, and module costs ought to proceed to lower. However these should not main bottlenecks.
What value development do you anticipate within the coming yr?
We anticipate the worth of polysilicon to fall from the present $35/kg to $10-$15/kg subsequent yr, and the free-on-board (FOB) module costs to $0.22/W in markets with out main commerce boundaries.
How will the enlargement figures develop in 2023 around the globe – particularly in Europe?
We anticipate 316 GW of recent development worldwide, and 48 GW in Europe subsequent yr.
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