Japan’s photo voltaic market will attain a cumulative put in PV capability of 78.4 GW by the tip of 2021, in response to a brand new report from the IEA-PVPS. Japanese analyst Izumi Kaizuka mentioned pv journal that the nation will yearly set up 6 GW of latest photo voltaic in 2022 and 2023.
Japan has reached a cumulative put in PV capability of 78.4 GW by the tip of 2021, in response to the Nationwide Survey Report on PV Energy Functions in Japan – 2021, which was lately revealed by the Worldwide Vitality Company Photovoltaic Energy Programs Program (IEA-PVPS) Process 1.
Final yr, the nation deployed 6,545.2 MW of latest photo voltaic capability. About 2,992 MW of the whole comes from centralized installations, 3,551 MW from distributed-generation photo voltaic arrays, and a pair of.2 MW from off-grid methods.
Izumi Kaizuka, the director of RTS Corp., mentioned that the Japanese market may attain a cumulative capability of as much as 90 GW by the tip of 2023.
“We count on between 5 GW and 6 GW of latest PV capability in 2022 and 2023,” Kaizuka mentioned. pv journalindicating that the market share between centralized and distributed tasks might not change.
Giant-scale photo voltaic accounts for between 2.5 GW and three GW of all new put in capability this yr.
“That is widespread for tasks below the expired feed-in tariff methodology for utility scale installations,” Kaizuka defined. “Solely a small portion will come from auctions and the PPA market.”
Rooftop PV will account for the remaining installations this yr – primarily business and industrial methods.
“Rising vitality costs are at present pushing companies to put in photo voltaic installations below the feed-in tariff methodology,” Kaizuka mentioned.
Feed-in tariffs for PV methods as much as 10 kW will lower from JPY 17 ($0.13)/kWh in 2022 to JPY 16/kWh this yr, however just for extra energy. Tariffs for installations from 10 kW to 50 kW will drop from JPY 11/kWh to JPY 10/kWh. The house owners of such installations will likely be allowed to inject all of the electrical energy into the grid.
The tariff for PV methods from 50 kW to 200 kW will drop from JPY 10/kWh to JPY 9.5/kWh. All methods bigger than 200 kW should compete in auctions.
“The feed-in tariff scheme for rooftop PV will likely be in place till the tip of subsequent yr and we nonetheless do not know what’s going to occur after that,” Kaizuka mentioned.
The IEA-PVPS says that PV system costs will proceed to fall in 2021. The value of residential PV methods as much as 10 kW in measurement, for instance, has fallen from JPY 231 / W in 2020 to JPY 220 / W in 2021. Costs for business installations vary from JPY 187/W to JPY 178/W. The common worth of ground-mounted PV vegetation of greater than 1 MW, in the meantime, decreased from JPY 128/W to JPY 122/W.
Kaizuka acknowledges that Japan faces restricted land availability and excessive land prices. These points are the obstacles for the deployment of huge photo voltaic services.
“We might have reached our tipping level,” he mentioned, referring to land availability for photo voltaic. “However I’m assured that some help might come from native governments and prefectures, which can determine to allocate public land for this function. Presently, there may be intense exercise to find out the processes of zoning for typical land-mounted tasks or agrivoltaic vegetation.
Agrivoltaics might turn out to be a brand new market driver for the Japanese vitality market within the coming years. In line with IEA-PVPS, the mixed capability of all agrivoltaic methods deployed within the nation reached 300 MW on the finish of December.
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