The record-breaking dimension and bustling corridor of Enex Expo exhibits that the Polish PV market has no intention of slowing down. Whereas final yr’s shift from web metering to web billing is predicted to proceed to reverberate by the residential photo voltaic market, the business and industrial (C&I) and utility-scale PV segments of the market are poised to select up the slack.
The 2023 version of Enex Expo displays the robust development that the Polish photo voltaic sector has skilled lately. It attracted a wholesome roll name of main producers and native gamers, with inverter and warmth pump producers taking middle stage.
The occasion was held on March 8 and March 9 in Targi Kielce, about 200 kilometers south of Warsaw. It attracted 323 corporations from 15 nations and 19,600 guests, unfold over a floor of 33 096 m2. In line with the organizers, it is a record-breaking version, from 190 exhibitors and 7868 guests welcomed in 2022 on a floor of 15 550 sq. meters.
To the shock of some exhibitors and attendees, final yr’s modifications in laws for the distributed era PV phase didn’t dampen enthusiasm on the present ground.
In different phrases, the residential rooftop PV sector in Poland underwent a serious change within the spring of final yr when new provisions have been launched for PV “micro-installations” as much as 50 kW in dimension. The brand new web billing system replaces the web metering scheme that has been in place since 2016, jeopardizing what has change into the nation’s key PV deployment engine.
In the course of final yr, a number of key gamers within the Polish PV sector reported important monetary losses, and a few set up corporations even went bankrupt. Nonetheless, Poland managed to put in 4.9 GW of photo voltaic PV in 2022, based on Photo voltaic Energy Europe knowledge, making it the third largest market in Europe, after Germany and Spain.
“Virtually 90% of PV installations in 2022 will come from prosumers,” mentioned Bogdan Szymanski, vp of the Polish PV Affiliation (SBF Polska PV).
In line with Szymanski, the market is predicted to stay on the expansion trajectory however with a shift from micro-installations to utility-scale.
“This yr, about 50% of recent installations will come from prosumers,” he mentioned. “However, many 100 MW or 200 MW pipeline tasks can be applied after they’ve emerged from long-standing allowing procedures.”
The C&I PV market share can also be anticipated to make a big contribution to the general whole this yr.
“Final yr, we witnessed the awakening of the C&I PV market phase in Poland,” mentioned Maciej Borowiak, vp of SBF Polska PV and cofounder of PV set up firm Brewa. “Electrical energy costs are 5 occasions larger than four-five years in the past with a median of PLZ 1,200 ($273)/MW and SMEs are beginning to swap to PV as a defend towards worth volatility of electrical energy.”
In line with Borowiak, two or three years in the past, there was no curiosity from the C&I market phase.
“At the moment, my firm prepares nearly every single day a suggestion for 1 MW or 2 MW tasks and even as much as 5 MW arrays and all these tasks plan a PPA enterprise mannequin,” he added.
Nonetheless, whereas a PV system as much as 50 kW doesn’t require a allow, it often takes about 12 months to acquire all the mandatory permits for bigger methods. One other headwind is the present regulation that applies to the PPA market.
“The utmost PPA worth of round PLZ 350/kWh has been set and it’ll stay efficient for one yr,” mentioned Szymanski. “In different phrases, in the event you promote at a worth larger than the one set on the public sale and PLZ 50, you must pay the tax on all the quantity obtained above this worth, and this places some traders.”
Whereas the brand new regulation is predicted within the PPA house in addition to concerning permits for the development of direct traces, business insiders imagine that not many modifications will happen this yr because of the upcoming parliamentary elections.
In the meantime, the prospects for warmth pumps are vibrant. Final yr, Poland was the quickest rising warmth pump market in Europe with 130% annual gross sales development. In line with native associations, no such bounce is predicted this yr, however the tempo of set up will proceed strongly.
Among the principal warmth pump suppliers – Panasonic, Mitsubishi Electrical, and Daikin – have been instructed pv journal on the Enex Expo that they have been caught up within the fast improve in demand seen final yr however that present lead occasions have been lowered to about six months.
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