The Photo voltaic Power Industries Affiliation (SEIA) and Wooden Mackenzie stated in a brand new report that they count on a 23% decline in US photo voltaic installations within the fourth quarter.
From pv journal USA
The US added 4.6 GW of recent photo voltaic capability within the third quarter, down 17% yr over yr. In line with the US Photo voltaic Market Perception This fall 2022 report, revealed by SEIA and Wooden Mackenzie, commerce obstacles and ongoing provide chain constraints are accountable for the decline, regardless of the introduction of the US Inflation Discount Act (IRA). . The entire lower for the yr can be 23%, in keeping with the report.
Detentions underneath the Uyghur Compelled Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) have depressed near-term photo voltaic set up forecasts and delayed the IRA’s influence, the report contends. The UFLPA believes that merchandise made in China’s Xinjiang area are made utilizing pressured labor, and the onus is on the producers to show in any other case.
The motion started in June, and resulted in US Customs and Border Safety seizing and impounding greater than 1,000 shipments of photo voltaic tools. In August, ROTH Capital Companions stated greater than 3 GW of parts have been held by customs. It’s estimated that as much as 8 GW to 12 GW of photo voltaic modules might be prevented from getting into the US market by the tip of the yr.
The US Commerce Division’s choice earlier this month to use anti-circumvention tariffs to photo voltaic merchandise from Southeast Asia jeopardizes future photo voltaic deployments, however the choice was not thought-about in SEIA’s view. The division rejected an earlier request in 2021 by an nameless group of photo voltaic firms that sought tariffs on sure firms that import modules. However Auxin Photo voltaic, a small panel assembler within the US, has filed a brand new spherical of antidumping/anti-circumvention (AD/CVD) instances in opposition to Malaysia, Thailand, and now Cambodia.
In June 2022, the US authorities stopped the problem with a two-year tariff exemption. Now the risk is that after a two-year hiatus, tariffs will come again into play. The SEIA report stated that whereas the AD/CVD ruling was not issued on the time to be included within the forecasts, they noticed the brand new tariffs as a draw back danger to the outlook.
“America’s clear vitality economic system is being held again by its personal commerce actions,” stated SEIA President and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “The photo voltaic and storage business is working decisively to construct an moral provide chain, however pointless provide bottlenecks and commerce restrictions stop producers from getting the tools they should put money into facility within the US.After the [IRA]we can not afford to waste time tinkering with commerce legal guidelines whereas the local weather risk looms.”
Along with limiting the move of products to the USA, provide chain challenges are driving up costs throughout the photo voltaic business. For the fifth consecutive quarter, year-on-year costs elevated in all market segments. Utility-scale costs, for instance, are 12.7% greater than a yr in the past. Consequently, 2022 set up forecasts present that deployment will go from 30 GW to fifteen GW final yr.
“This yr’s installations have been notably depressed resulting from provide chain constraints,” stated Michelle Davis, principal analyst and lead writer of the report. “It has confirmed more and more tough and time-consuming to supply the right proof to adjust to the UFLPA, additional delaying the supply of apparatus to the US.”
However there’s excellent news. Photo voltaic accounted for 45% of all new electrical energy era capability added to the US grid by way of the third quarter. The residential sector didn’t expertise a downturn – the truth is it noticed a 43% enhance within the third quarter of 2021, with 1.57 GW put in. A few of it comes from California, the place residents are scrambling to put in photo voltaic earlier than internet metering modifications take impact. And generally, the report predicts that the expansion, which is the results of the IRA, will start in 2024, with an annual development of photo voltaic averaging 21% between 2023-27.
The extra excellent news is that the photo voltaic business is anticipated to return to development after 2022. The restoration of the provision chain ought to come after the second quarter of 2023, and at that time “the actual results of Inflation Discount Act will mirror our views,” in keeping with the report. Annual photo voltaic installations recurrently attain 30 to 40 GW (DC) in 2024. From 2023-27, the report predicts 21% common annual development in all photo voltaic segments, though the authors of the report say that AD / CVD tariffs present a draw back danger concerned in future views.
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