Poland will greater than double its put in PV capability between 2023 and 2025, in response to analysis institute IEO. pv journal spoke with IEO researcher Agata Krzyżanowska about the principle drivers of the market, the trail of the public sale system, and potential constraints on the grid.
The put in PV capability in Poland will greater than double to 26,791 MW by the top of 2025, primarily based on information from the Polish analysis institute IEO. Its newest report means that this 12 months, the nation will add roughly 5,981 MW, adopted by 4,392 MW in 2024 and three,996 MW in 2025.
“Essentially the most dramatic change and development is anticipated on the a part of massive farms and amongst business prosumers,” mentioned IEO researcher Agata Krzyżanowska pv journal. “Momentary issues with full entry to the grid and really excessive electrical energy costs for business customers will facilitate sooner development of investments by enterprise prosumers in small installations as much as 50 kW or better below the online billing scheme, which focuses on car consumption of inexperienced electrical energy.”
The IEO mentioned that the renewable power public sale within the 2016-21 interval was successful and a stimulus for the event of many large-scale PV initiatives. They supply help for six.8 GW of solar energy and 5.3 GW for wind energy.
“Nevertheless, within the years 2021-22, a lower in curiosity within the public sale help instrument will be noticed, as a result of the PV expertise is taken into account mature and power costs have grown through the gasoline blackmail interval in Russia and the electrical energy disaster,” mentioned Krzyżanowska. “Traders have determined to construct farms on fully business ideas, by promoting power available in the market, together with [power purchase agreements].”
Within the final public sale in 2021, buyers supplied solely part of the capability, leaving a big half for PPA contracts. With the introduction of a worth cap for PV and wind in 2022 and the discount of electrical energy costs in 2023, the upcoming autumn public sale is anticipated to be extra enticing. Nevertheless, it’s anticipated that the public sale quantity will differ sooner or later.
Within the interval 2016-22, the power costs contracted within the public sale system for PV farms decreased by 18%, whereas the typical electrical energy gross sales worth within the aggressive Polish market elevated by 68%. In distinction, photo voltaic module costs skilled a big improve in 2021 and 2022.
“Based on surveys carried out by IEO amongst PV market contributors, in 2021, PV module costs in Poland will improve by 7%, and in 2022 – by 12% and inflation shall be greater than 10% ,” mentioned Krzyżanowska.
Krzyżanowska mentioned that the builders of PV initiatives are additionally dealing with severe grid connection points in Poland. Nevertheless, these constraints don’t characterize an actual barrier to photo voltaic deployment.
“Constraints as a consequence of frequent rejections since 2022 of purposes for grid connection are anticipated to not decelerate the tempo of improvement of the PV trade till 2025,” he mentioned. “There’s a 6 GW pipeline of initiatives with grid connection permits, and grid operators plan to increase grid connection capacities for internet hosting PV within the coming years.”
Krzyżanowska talked about that the Polish authorities will present monetary incentives for the modernization of the grid by the Nationwide Reconstruction Plan and the EU Cohesion Fund. System operators are additionally anticipated to undertake a brand new method that considers financial wants and consists of technical options reminiscent of cable pooling, hybrid installations, direct traces, and using batteries and others power storage strategies.
“Such measures had been permitted in June by the Polish Parliament,” he defined. “Moreover, the continued RES public sale system will stay open till 2027, which is able to undoubtedly contribute to the mobilization of economic establishments and additional development of large-scale PV investments within the Vistula River nation.”
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